Risk Terrain Modeling, or RTM, is an approach to spatial risk analysis that utilizes a geographic information system to attribute qualities of the real world to places on a digitized map. It operationalizes the spatial influence of risk factors to common geographic units, then combines separate layers to produce “risk terrain” maps showing the presence, absence, or intensity of all risk factors at every location throughout the geography. Theoretically- and empirically-grounded risk terrain maps show where conditions are suitable for threats and hazardous events to occur in the future. RTM offers a statistically valid way to articulate and communicate vulnerable areas at the micro-level.

With the growing utilization of intelligence-led operations in the security community, risk assessments for global threats are especially important for tactical actions, resource allocations, and short- and long-term planning. Use the resources below to produce risk terrain models and maps that give actionable meaning to the relationships that exist between place-based indicators and hazardous outcomes.

Global Risk Terrain Modeling Manual:

Theoretical Framework and Technical Steps for Worldwide Threat Analysis

Forthcoming Spring 2012

This manual is offered as a primer on the conceptual issues surrounding global risk and demonstrates effective ways to apply GIS techniques to global data. Through this processes demonstrated, analysts can identify risk terrains that give actionable meaning to the relationships that exist between place-based indicators and hazardous outcomes. Planners can use this approach to risk analysis to develop strategic models to forecast where problems are likely to emerge and to engage in steps that might reduce risks in the future, thereby potentially averting crises altogether. The manual is presented in three parts.  It begins with a review of the Risk Terrain Modeling approach and presents a short overview of the theoretical underpinnings of globalization theory that have addressed the social and environmental factors that contribute to social and economic problems. The second part details the technical steps for analysts to take using ArcGIS software to develop risk terrain maps. In the third and final part, there is a discussion of ways in which RTM can be applied to global strategic and tactical decision-making.

Additional Written Resources

Books, full-text articles, book chapters, research briefs, literature reviews, and case studies are all up-to-date and ready for download at the Publications Page. Look for the symbol to find them easily.

RTM Google Group

http://groups.google.com/group/risk-terrain-modeling
 

Be the first to learn about RTM-related news and events. Click on the link to join or learn more. This email discussion group is an outlet for users to share thoughts, post questions, seek advice, share RTM experiences, and see what others have to say. Only members can post comments, but all content is public. 

Supplemental Tutorials and Recommended Resources
 

Step-by-step guide for testing predictive validity, weighting, and selecting risk map layers PDF

Notes on Testing Predictive Validity, Spatial Autocorrelation and Selecting Risk Map Layers PDF

Video Demo of SPSS to test a RTMl's predictive validity (~3min no audio) Link

Video Demo of Epi Info to test RTM's predictive validity (~2min, no audio) Link

GIS for Public Safety: An annotated guide to ArcGIS tools and procedures (Free PDF download) Link

Epi Info (Free statistical software from the CDC; useful for testing predictive validity of RTM) Link 

RTM in Action

To the Greatest Lengths: Al Queda, Proximity and Recruitment Risk (Naval Postgraduate School Dissertation by Ismael R. Rodriguez, Major, US Army) Link

ArcGIS Tools

RTM Toolbox for ArcGIS 9.3 (Updated 5/2011)
RTM Toolbox for ArcGIS 10 (Beta Version 8/2011)