Risk Terrain Modeling

Place-based risk assessment for intelligence-led operations

© 2010 RCPS

Risk Terrain Modeling Manual: Theoretical Framework and Technical Steps of Spatial Risk Assessment   by (bios) Joel M. Caplan Leslie W. Kennedy     Download the Manual as PDF (Here)   Click here to order hardcopies directly from Amazon.com: This book is intended for free PDF download. But as a convenience, we arranged for a publisher to print hardcopies on-demand in full-color and bounded. The cost is $35.67.

Download the RTM Toolbox for ArcGIS 9.3 (Here)

Supplemental Tutorials That Assist with RTM (html pages, unless noted otherwise): Accessing Spatial Analyst Extension | Clipping Raster Risk Terrain Maps | Setting RTM Analysis Extent | Spatial Joins & Select by Location | Using Raster Calculator | Map Layout | Importing Maps into Microsoft Word or PPT

Recent Related Publications: Risk Terrain Modeling: Brokering Criminological Theory and GIS Methods for Crime Forecasting. Justice Quarterly; See also: Research Briefs and Case Studies at RCPS.

Presentation: PPT slides and notes from the 2010 Esri International User Conference, where RTM was discussed for use in public safety (pdf).

RTM in Action:: KCPD Chief Corwin's Blog: Risk Terrain Modeling (July 20, 2010); The Informant, Aug. 2010: New Technique Predicts Crime Risk; KCTV News 5 Video: New Police Program Identifies High-Risk Areas Article: KCMO Police Use New Tool To Help Prevent Crimes

Join the RTM Google Group at http://groups.google.com/group/risk-terrain-modeling. Or, send an email to rutgerscps@gmail.com for an invitation link. This email discussion group is an outlet for users to share thoughts, post questions, seek advice, share RTM experiences, and see what others have to say. Only members can post comments, but all content is public. 

From the BACK COVER:

Risk Terrain Modeling (RTM) is an approach to risk assessment that standardizes risk factors to common geographic units over a continuous surface. Separate map layers representing the presence, absence, or intensity of each risk factor at every place throughout a terrain is created in a Geographic Information System (GIS), and then all risk map layers are combined to produce a composite “risk terrain” map with attribute values that account for all risk factors at every location throughout the geography. RTM aids in strategic decision-making and tactical action by showing where conditions are ripe for events to occur in the future.

This manual is offered as a primer on risk in the criminal event and demonstrates effective ways to apply RTM to crime analysis and policing operations. It begins with a review of the RTM approach to spatial risk assessment and presents a short overview of the theoretical underpinnings of criminological theory that have addressed the social and environmental factors that contribute to crime patterns, hotspots, and risk terrains. The second part details the technical steps for analysts to take in using ArcGIS software to develop risk terrain maps. The third and final part presents ideas of how RTM works in strategic and tactical decision-making, particularly within the context of the ACTION model for risk-based intelligence-led policing.

With this manual, analysts can produce risk terrain maps that give actionable meaning to the relationships that exist between place-based indicators and crime outcomes. Planners can use this approach to develop strategic models to forecast where crime problems are likely to emerge and to engage in steps that might reduce risks of crime occurring in the future.

"Understanding the spatial-temporal interaction effects of certain factors, or correlates, of crime is key to assessing and valuing criminogenic risk. Fortunately, decades of criminological research have identified a variety of independent variables that have been found to correlate significantly with particular crime outcomes. Risk Terrain Modeling was developed by Joel M. Caplan and Leslie W. Kennedy at Rutgers University School of Criminal Justice in recognition that a method was needed to simultaneously apply all of these empirical findings to practice." (Preface)

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