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Violent Crime

Research, Analysis & Forecasting

Journal Articles

2021. Exploring the Influence of Elements of the Social and Physical Environment on Neighborhood Gun Crime. American Journal of Criminal Justice. Link

2020. Risk of Robbery in a Tourist Destination: A Monthly Examination of Atlantic City, NJ. Journal of Place Management and Development. Link

2020. Tracking the Risk of Crime Throughout the Day: An Examination of Jersey City Robberies. Criminal Justice Review. Link |
Brief

2018. Aggravating Effects of Alcohol Outlet Types on Street Robbery and Aggravated Assaults in New York City. Journal of Crime and Justice.

2018. Risk Factor and High-Risk Place Variations Across Different Robbery Targets in Denver, Colorado. Journal of Criminal Justice. Link


2018. Predicting Dynamical Crime Distribution from Environmental and Social Influences. Frontiers in Applied Mathematics and Statistics. Link

2018. Examining Interactive Effects of Characteristics of the Social and Physical Environment on Aggravated Assault. Journal of Criminal Justice. Link

2018. Risk Terrain Modeling and Socio-Economic Stratification: Identifying Risky Places for Violent Crime Victimization in Bogotá, Colombia. European Journal of Criminal Policy and Research. Link

2017. Crime in Context: Utilizing Risk Terrain Modeling and Conjunctive Analysis of Case Configurations to Explore the Dynamics of Criminogenic Behavior Settings. Journal of Contemporary Criminal Justice. Link

2017. The Crime Kaleidoscope: A Cross-Jurisdictional Analysis of Place Features and Crime in Three Urban Environments. Applied Geography. Link

2017. Place-Based Risk Factors for Aggravated Assault Across Police Divisions in Little Rock, Arkansas. Journal of Crime and Justice. Link

2016. Bringing the Physical Environment Back Into Neighborhood Research: The Utility of RTM for Developing an Aggregate Neighborhood Risk of Crime Measure. Journal of Criminal Justice. Link

2015. The Social and Geographic Patterns of Sexual Offending: Is Sexual Offender Residence Restriction Legislation Practical?. Victims & Offenders. Link

2015. Exposure to Crime: Applying Risk Terrain Modeling to the Study of Assault in Chicago. Applied Spatial Analysis and Policy. Link | View Brief

2013. Joint utility of event-dependent and environmental crime analysis techniques for violent crime forecasting. Crime and Delinquency, 59(2), 243-270. Link

2012. Kansas City’s Violent Crime Initiative: A Place-Based Evaluation of Location-Specific Intervention Activities during a Fixed Time Period. Crime Mapping, 4(2), 9-37. Link

2011. Mapping the spatial influence of crime correlates: A comparison of operationalization schemes and implications for crime analysis and criminal justice practice. Cityscape, 13(3), 57-83. PDF

2011. Risk terrain modeling: Brokering criminological theory and GIS methods for crime forecasting. Justice Quarterly, 28(2), 360-381. Link

2011. Risk clusters, hotspots, and spatial intelligence: Risk Terrain Modeling as an Algorithm for Police Resource Allocation Strategies. Journal of Quantitative Criminology, 27(3), 339-362. Link

Book Chapters

2014. Forecasting of Shootings using Risk Terrain Modeling. In G. Bruinsma and D. Weisburd (Eds.), Crime and Place: Crime Specialization and Concentrations. New York: Springer-Verlag. Link

2011. Risk Terrains and Crime Emergence. In J. McGloin, C. Sullivan, and L. W. Kennedy. When Crime Appears: The Role of Crime Emergence. NY: Taylor & Francis. Link

Research Briefs

2020. Tracking the Risk of Crime Throughout the Day: An Examination of Jersey City Robberies. Criminal Justice Review. PDF

2018. Unpacking Spatio-Temporal Differences of Risk for Crime: An Analysis in Little Rock, Arkansas PDF


2017. Crime in Context: Utilizing Risk Terrain Modeling and Conjunctive Analysis to Explore the Dynamics of Criminogenic Behavior Settings PDF

2017. Place-Based Risk Factors for Aggravated Assault Across Police Divisions in Little Rock, Arkansas PDF

2017. The Crime Kaleidoscope: A Cross-Jurisdictional Analysis of Place Features and Crime in Three Urban Environments PDF

2016. Exposure to Crime: Applying Risk Terrain Modeling to the Study of Assault in Chicago (Theory of Risky Places) PDF

2016. Bringing the Physical Environ. Back Into Neighborhood Research: The Utility of RTM for Developing an Aggregate Neighborhood Risk of Crime Measure PDF

2015. Shootings in Chicago, IL PDF

2015. Robbery in Glendale, AZ PDF

2015. Aggravated Violence in Kansas City, MO PDF

2015. Gun Violence in Newark, NJ PDF

2014. Robbery in Kansas City, MO  PDF


2013. Felonious Assault and Injury to Law Enforcement: Epidemiology and Spatial Risk Factors PDF

2012. Robbery Risk as a Co-function of Place and Time PDF

2012. Using Poisson and Negative Binomial Regression Models to Measure the Influence of Risk on Crime Incident Counts PDF

2012. Establishing Situational Context in Risk Terrains (with Conjunctive Analysis) PDF

2012. Vacant Properties and Gun Shootings: Empirical Validation of a Core Assumption of the Kensington Renewal Initiative PDF

2012. Weighted Risk Terrain Model for Aggravated Assaults in Kansas City, MO PDF

2011. An Analysis of Modern Early Warning Systems: How might Risk-Terrain Modeling contribute to the development of an optimal system PDF

2011. Applying RTM to Aggravated Assault PDF

2011. Applying RTM to Street Robberies PDF

2010. Applying Risk Terrain Modeling to a Violent Crimes Initiative in Kansas City, Missouri PDF

2010. Risk Clusters, Hotspots, and Spatial Intelligence: Risk Terrains Modeling as an Algorithm for Police Resource Allocation Strategies PDF

2009. Applying RTM to Shootings PDF

Other Recommended Readings

ARTICLE: 2023. Does routine activity theory still matter during COVID-19 restrictions? The geography of sexual assaults before, during, and after COVID-19 restrictions. Journal of Criminal Justice. By Lersch & Hart. Link

ARTICLE: 
2023. Crime, Space, and Race: A Spatial Analysis of Assaults with Victim Race and Residence as Predictors. Crime & Delinquency. By Korotchenko & Semukhina. Link

ARTICLE: 2021. Disorder or Disadvantage: Investigating the Tension Between Neighborhood Social Structure and the Physical Environment on Local Violence. Criminal Justice Review. By Barton, Valasik & Brault. Link 

ARTICLE: 2021. Assessing the Differential Impact of Vacancy on Criminal Violence in the City of St. Louis, MO. Criminal Justice Review. By Fox, Trolard, Simmons, Meyers, & Vogel. Link 

ARTICLE: 2019. Can We Trust Crime Predictors and Crime Categories? Expansions on the Potential Problem of Generalization. Applied Spatial Analysis and Policy. By Nathan Connealy. Link

ARTICLE: 2018. Forecasting Homicide in the Red Stick: Risk Terrain Modeling and the Spatial Influence of Urban Blight on Lethal Violence in Baton Rouge, Louisiana. Social Science Research. By Valasik, Braulta & Martinez. Link

CRIME REPORT. 2018. Spatial Risk Assessment: Robbery Vulnerability. Burlington Police Department, North Carolina. PDF

ARTICLE. 2018. Gang Violence Predictability: Using Risk Terrain Modeling to Study Gang Homicides and Gang Assaults in East Los Angeles. Journal of Criminal Justice. By Valasik. Link


ARTICLE. 2018. Isolating Target and Neighbourhood Vulnerabilities in Crime Forecasting. European Journal on Criminal Policy and Research. By Dugato, Favarin & Bosisio . Link

ARTICLE.
 2018. Bus Stops and Violence, Are Risky Places Really Risky?
European Journal on Criminal Policy and Research. By Gerell. Link

ARTICLE. 2018. Applying Crime Prediction Techniques to Japan: A Comparison Between Risk Terrain Modeling and Other Methods. European Journal on Criminal Policy and Research. By Ohyama & Amemiya. Link

ARTICLE.
 2018. Unpacking Spatio-temporal Differences of Risk for Crime: An Analysis in Little Rock, AR. Policing. By Chillar & Drawve. Link


ARTICLE. 2017. Risky Places: An Analysis of Carjackings in Detroit. Journal of Criminal Justice. By Lersch. Link

ARTICLE.
 2017. Forecasting Organized Crime Homicides: Risk Terrain Modeling of Camorra Violence in Naples, Italy. J of Interpersonal Violence. By Dugato et al. Link


ARTICLE.
 2017. Close Only Counts in Alcohol and Violence: Controlling Violence Near Late-Night Alcohol Establishments. J of Criminal Justice. By Burgason et al. Link


ARTICLE. 2015. Testing the predictability of crime forecasting models using patio-temporal analysis and risk terrain modeling. Korean Criminological Review. By Roh Sunghoon. [English & Korean Abstract; Article is written in Korean]  Link

ARTICLE. 2015. Identifying risky places for crime: An analysis of the criminogenic spatiotemporal influences of landscape features on street robberies. U.S. Department of Justice. By Yasmin Irvin-Ericsson. Link

ARTICLE. 2015. Using risk terrain modeling technique to identify places with the greatest risk for violent crimes in New Haven. Crime Mapping & Analysis News. By Charles Anyinam. Link

ARTICLE. 2014, online first. Predictability of gun crimes: A comparison of hot spots and risk terrain modelling techniques. Policing and Society: An International Journal of Research and Policy. By Grant Drawve, Stacy Moak, & Emily Berthelot. Link

ARTICLE. 2014, online first. A metric comparison of predictive hot spot techniques & RTM. Justice Quarterly. By Grant Drawve. Link

ARTICLE. 2013. Assessing the validity of risk terrain modeling in a European city: Preventing robberies in Milan. Crime Mapping, 5(1), 63-89. By Marco Dugato, TRANSCRIME. Link

MANUSCRIPT. 2016. Applying RTM
to Identify High Risk Locations for Active Shooter Events. Thesis from Mercyhurst University. By John Hecht. PDF

REPORT. 2016. FIP (the Ideas for Peace Foundation): Homicidio y venta de drogas ilícitas: una peligrosa dupla en Bogotá. Link

REPORT. 2012. Oregon Knowledge Bank. Successful RTM Project to Forecast Robberies in Portland. Link

NEWS. 2017. Ordinance Reduces Violent Crime Near Late-Night Bars Making Owners Part of Solution. Link

NEWS. 2015. Inequality in Bogota, A Key Factor in Predicting Crime. Dinero |
Link

NEWS. 2015. Latin American Cities Studied How to Predict Crime. World Bank | English Link, Spanish Link

NEWS. 2015. Interview on Latin American TV discussing the RTM research findings in Bogotá, re: crime and infrastructure. NTN24 | Watch
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  • Home
  • People
  • Research
  • Software
  • Training
    • Certifications
    • RTM Training Online
    • Course Materials >
      • Download Course Materials
  • News
  • RTM
  • DICE
    • Overview
    • History
    • NPSC
    • DICEforPublicSafety.org